How I Walk Into Every Open Without Guessing
Price is at a level. I'm not predicting. I'm preparing.
The Only Two Things That Matter at the Open
Most traders want to know what’s going to happen.
I stopped trying to answer that question a long time ago.
Not because the market is random. It isn’t. Because the question itself is wrong.
The right question isn’t “where is price going?” It’s “what do I do if price does X, and what do I do if it does Y?”
That’s it. Two scenarios. One level. A plan for both sides.
That’s how I’ve trading for over a decade. Not by being right. By being ready.
This week’s read
$NQ closed at $30,389.50 heading into the open.
There’s a level I’m watching: $30,270.
That zone has been holding as support. It matters. Not because I drew a line on a chart and decided it does, but because price has respected it. The market told me it matters. I’m listening.
Two scenarios from here:
If we continue lower, $30,270 is the first real test. I want to see how price reacts there. Does it hold? Does it slice through on volume? Does it wick and close back above?
If price fails to break and close below it, I’m looking to retarget the highs.
I’m not leaning hard either way. I have a plan for both.
That’s the whole job.
Why most traders get this wrong
They pick a side before the open.
They read a headline, they see a red futures session, and they decide: “Today is a down day.” Then they spend the entire session fighting price when it doesn’t cooperate.
Confirmation bias in real time. Expensive habit.
The level removes the opinion. When you have a concrete price to watch, you’re not guessing. You’re waiting. And waiting is a skill most traders never develop because it feels like doing nothing.
It isn’t nothing. It’s the job.
What I’ll be watching
Price behavior around $30,270 at the open. Not a prediction. A process.
If it holds, the trade is higher. If it breaks and closes below, the trade is lower. If it chops around the level with no conviction, I sit on my hands.
I’ll be posting the outcome and what I saw in the next newsletter edition.
One thing to take into this week
Before the open, write down two scenarios. Not predictions. Conditions.
“If price does X, I do Y. If price does Z, I do W.”
That’s your plan. That’s the only plan worth having.
Trade well. 📈